| 00:06.15 | shalkie | ~worf |
| 00:06.15 | infobot | We cannot regain honor by acting dishonorably. |
| 00:06.28 | shalkie | awww... I was hoping for more then just one. |
| 00:44.07 | TodPunk | ~worf |
| 00:44.07 | infobot | Today was not my day to die. |
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| 01:55.49 | Nebosuke | hello |
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| 15:53.28 | jlp_znc | ~worf |
| 15:53.28 | infobot | I did not faint. Klingons do not faint. |
| 15:53.35 | jlp_znc | ~moss |
| 15:53.35 | infobot | I want to go back to being weird. I like being weird. Weird is all I've got. That and my sweet style. |
| 15:53.39 | jlp_znc | ~roy |
| 15:53.39 | infobot | I am a man, he's a man, we're men! |
| 15:53.47 | jlp_znc | ~lister |
| 15:53.55 | jlp_znc | hmmm |
| 15:53.58 | jlp_znc | ~rimmer |
| 15:53.58 | infobot | They've been very bad, Mr. Flibble. |
| 15:54.06 | jlp_znc | ~thecat |
| 15:54.06 | infobot | No, mine! The fish is mine! |
| 15:54.14 | jlp_znc | ~middleman |
| 15:54.15 | infobot | Oh, phooey. |
| 15:54.31 | jlp_znc | ~kronk |
| 15:54.31 | infobot | Beats me. By all accounts it doesn't make sense. |
| 15:54.48 | jlp_znc | ~ida |
| 15:54.48 | infobot | methinks ida is at http://www.datarescue.com/idabase/index.htm |
| 15:54.55 | spangborn | http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/senior-gop-officials-exploring-options-trump-drops/story?id=41089609 |
| 15:54.56 | jlp_znc | :-( |
| 15:54.57 | spangborn | Wat |
| 15:55.35 | jlp_znc | why would trump drop out? |
| 15:57.07 | jlp_znc | ~trump spangborn |
| 15:57.07 | infobot | ACTION deports spangborn |
| 16:00.02 | jfindlay | ~brain |
| 16:00.02 | infobot | The game does not conclude until the woman with the eating disorder ululates. |
| 16:06.13 | eightyeight | http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now |
| 16:07.11 | TodPunk | I'll be honest, I think that's the least accurate analysis I've seen thus far |
| 16:07.41 | TodPunk | Everything else I have been linked to today puts Hillary ahead, but not by much. |
| 16:08.02 | TodPunk | (and these were also pro-Hillary zealots, lest we think they were biased the other way) |
| 16:08.16 | eightyeight | that's the "now cast" |
| 16:08.22 | eightyeight | if the elections happened today |
| 16:08.44 | eightyeight | the weighted "polls-plus" cast is less dramatic: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus |
| 16:08.49 | TodPunk | I know. Polls aren't exactly less "now" |
| 16:09.13 | eightyeight | it's hard to argue with 538s historical accuracy though |
| 16:09.19 | eightyeight | it's a good weather indicator |
| 16:09.56 | TodPunk | Until you started linking it in this channel months ago, I'd never heard of it. Not about to just trust it, especially when it's the only voice that agrees with it. |
| 16:10.47 | spangborn | It's Nate Silver's website. |
| 16:10.59 | spangborn | Pretty well-known political analyst and statistician. |
| 16:11.21 | TodPunk | ok? |
| 16:11.32 | TodPunk | doesn't follow politics for a reason |
| 16:12.36 | TodPunk | In slightly related news, youtah seems to have stopped talking about HAM radios for more than 3 days, in favor of a pool and how cool taking pictures underwaters makes him |
| 16:13.11 | spangborn | TodPunk: he's not even here, which explains part of it ;p |
| 16:13.30 | spangborn | My favorite thing is seeing what youtah's flavor of the week is. |
| 16:13.32 | TodPunk | I'm friends with him on Facebook and he lives down the street |
| 16:13.52 | spangborn | usually it's his newly traded in for subaru |
| 16:16.54 | eightyeight | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver |
| 16:17.26 | eightyeight | "Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election." |
| 16:17.40 | eightyeight | "In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia." |
| 16:18.03 | spangborn | While it's fair to question the bias, I think he's a pretty smart dude |
| 16:27.24 | TodPunk | I wonder how easy it would be to do a .NET simple HTTP file server that's cross-platform |
| 16:38.59 | eightyeight | spangborn: yeah. he's correctly predicted senate and house seats also |
| 16:39.13 | eightyeight | it's uncanny how accurate he is with the polls, which are his bread and butter |
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| 16:43.58 | eightyeight | basically: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver#FiveThirtyEight.27s_election_forecasts |
| 16:44.04 | eightyeight | yeah. it's got street cred. |
| 16:45.26 | fungus | TodPunk, you were probably surprised by the initial numbers of the 538 results, because they were election outcomes, and not popular vote poll results like most other outlets publish. |
| 16:46.01 | manithree | His FINAL predictions are always very accurate. But his predictions change a lot in the months leading up to an election. |
| 16:47.40 | TodPunk | fungus: surprised is not the right word. I deeply question a statement of "14% chance to win" (or whatever it was) for Trump when everyone else seen on the same day is nowhere close to that. It's mostly a refusal to believe the sensational without any explanation |
| 16:48.04 | fungus | That's a misunderstanding of what you have read. |
| 16:48.05 | TodPunk | I don't have a care in the world for the outcome, mind you |
| 16:48.26 | fungus | 538 publishes election outcomes, Most other outlets publish popular vote polling results. |
| 16:48.29 | fungus | Very different things. |
| 16:48.46 | TodPunk | I'm willing to accept that may be the case, but then I'd counter with that's a really shitty chart if it can't convey why it's different than every other chart that is in the same format |
| 16:49.51 | fungus | So you didn't look at the second chart. |
| 16:50.14 | TodPunk | As it was a while ago, I can't recall. Let's assume I didn't. |
| 16:51.35 | eightyeight | fwiw, silver predicted that trump had a 5% chance winning the party nomination |
| 16:52.04 | eightyeight | he admitted in a blog post that he was basically biased, and let his bias show through in his models |
| 16:52.12 | TodPunk | well, at least you're being honest and forthright about it, and I'll give you great credit for that |
| 16:52.13 | eightyeight | as well as underestimating the media |
| 16:52.58 | TodPunk | It's interesting how little the media actually controls now, and how reactive it's become |
| 16:53.54 | TodPunk | Choosing not to run a thing on principle is basically a death knell to your audience numbers. You can only slant it, and you're usually preaching to the choir anyway |
| 16:53.55 | eightyeight | er, he gave him a 2% chance of clinching the nomination |
| 16:54.22 | eightyeight | he's also a sports guy, and an economics guy, which makes 538 very interesting, imo |
| 16:54.39 | eightyeight | i particularly enjoyed http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/sumo/ |
| 16:56.19 | TodPunk | gets really bored with data analysis pontification |
| 16:56.27 | TodPunk | Apathy is a double-edged sword |
| 16:58.48 | eightyeight | well, my point is that 538 is well-rounded: politics, economics, sports |
| 17:00.03 | TodPunk | yeah, which just made it more boring (this is a reflection on me, no 538) |
| 17:00.07 | TodPunk | *not |
| 17:00.21 | TodPunk | I made an awesome typo in another channel |
| 17:00.23 | TodPunk | suddently |
| 17:00.33 | TodPunk | It looks good, and it sounds awesome |
| 17:02.14 | spangborn | Oh? |
| 17:02.17 | spangborn | Haha. |
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| 19:26.49 | spangborn | ~youtah-- |
| 19:26.52 | spangborn | ~ham-- |
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| 21:58.21 | eightyeight | a deeper look into the trump slump: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/03/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-10-points-both-seen-as-flawed.html |
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