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| 15:48.34 | eightyeight | predictions: trump and clinton win iowa. trump and sanders win N.H next week. trump and clinton are party nominations for the general election. |
| 15:48.36 | eightyeight | how depressing |
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| 15:56.02 | asoc | Trump winning in Iowa will make me agree with one thing he has said at least ;) |
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| 16:03.41 | scottymu1e | I'm enjoying all the coverage the mantua speed trap is getting this week. :) |
| 16:04.09 | unum | :) |
| 16:04.43 | unum | I'm still not buying the trump nomination |
| 16:05.12 | unum | it's really hard to predict turn out in caucuses |
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| 16:09.36 | eightyeight | unum: agreed. but polls, if weighted correctly, can be strong predictors |
| 16:10.01 | eightyeight | unum: but, caucuses are where the rubber meets the road. so, we'll see, for sure |
| 16:11.08 | unum | but the weighting on the caucuses is so difficult to do right |
| 16:11.25 | unum | most of trumps support seems to be coming from people who are less active in politics |
| 16:11.45 | unum | so the question is will their support for him drive them to the caucus or will they all stay home like they usually do |
| 16:12.59 | unum | though he probably will win tonight |
| 16:13.16 | unum | but I think it will tougher in bigger states and when you have more states voting at once |
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| 16:14.55 | unum | for example how many people here intend to attend their caucus meeting |
| 16:14.59 | unum | raises his hand |
| 16:16.35 | SunSparc | The idea of caucus meetings seems good, but parties make them lame. |
| 16:17.37 | SunSparc | And those that go to them tend to already have their minds made up which makes them closeminded to any valuable conversation. |
| 16:17.58 | SunSparc | Don't mind me, I am just jaded. :) |
| 16:23.49 | unum | I'd prefer primaries |
| 16:24.17 | unum | I feel like caucus meetings tend to help extremist that represent a minority of the population |
| 16:25.43 | SunSparc | Well, the caucus system allows the average Joe Blow like you and I find his way into the political system. I tend to think that is a good thing. |
| 16:36.15 | SunSparc | But I missed the beginning of this conversation, so I really have no idea what you are talking about. :D |
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| 17:00.33 | eightyeight | unum: hmm, i'm not sure i agree. weighting the polls is based on historical accuracy and left/right bias, with other factors |
| 17:00.46 | eightyeight | unum: if you know how, you can make some solid predictions based on polling |
| 17:01.09 | eightyeight | nate silver, for example, makes a living doing this, and has the track record to show he's damn good at it too |
| 17:02.19 | eightyeight | and trump's support are all aging, white, active voters, from what i understand |
| 17:03.36 | unum | the state based polling is more accurate for caucus goers because it factors in past voting history |
| 17:04.22 | eightyeight | we're out a ways, of course, but national polls also show this will be a trump/clinton general |
| 17:04.46 | unum | SunSparc: I guess the beginning of my political activism can be in away traced back to me showing up to a caucus meeting in order to support pashdown |
| 17:05.05 | unum | but I was already involved in different ways, but that's when I became a party operative |
| 17:05.16 | unum | though I don't think the caucuses help me as a candidate |
| 17:05.25 | eightyeight | i'm really hoping for some sanders upsets, but i doubt there will be enough to shake clinton from the nomination |
| 17:05.32 | unum | eightyeight: nate silvel is very suspect of national pols at this point |
| 17:05.50 | unum | he says they have no predictive power |
| 17:06.05 | unum | mostly because they call randomly and not on voting history |
| 17:06.10 | unum | which really matters in primaries |
| 17:06.19 | eightyeight | agreed |
| 17:06.53 | eightyeight | although, i don't think they have 'no predictive power'. i just think national polls at this stage is "too early to call" |
| 17:07.13 | eightyeight | but state polls clearly forecast trump/clinton nominations |
| 17:08.03 | unum | I wish my man lessig was still in |
| 17:08.13 | eightyeight | ++ |
| 17:08.31 | SunSparc | Write in? :) |
| 17:08.41 | eightyeight | likely for me at this point |
| 17:08.50 | unum | SunSparc: I'm not sure that will be an option with the caucus |
| 17:09.01 | unum | I'll have to ask people how that's going to work |
| 17:09.31 | eightyeight | i have a pool of 3-4 options i could write in |
| 17:10.01 | SunSparc | wonders if it would be helpful to eliminate political parties... |
| 17:10.34 | eightyeight | they're really pointless anyway |
| 17:10.55 | eightyeight | it's just a badge you can wear on your lapel when you got to meetings, like a raiders coat |
| 17:11.50 | unum | I like the idea of atleast stripping the party name from the ballot |
| 17:12.00 | unum | you also have jungle primaries |
| 17:12.08 | unum | but it looks like the courts are striking those down |
| 17:12.20 | unum | you can do "nonpartisan" like we do for municipal elections |
| 17:21.00 | unum | great they're using custom microsoft software to count the votes this year |
| 17:21.02 | unum | ug |
| 17:21.21 | eightyeight | haha |
| 17:27.37 | scottymu1e | unum: Isn't there a bill this year to remove the straight ticket votes? |
| 17:30.51 | unum | scottymu1e: yes, that would be good to |
| 17:31.15 | unum | I'd vote for that bill :) |
| 17:31.47 | unum | of course republicans have no reason to want that bill and 80% of the votes, so I don't expect it to get far |
| 17:31.53 | unum | hopefully I'm wrong |
| 17:32.01 | unum | they did do that crazy bill last year |
| 17:32.14 | unum | I wonder if the courts would really allow the republican party to be disqualified |
| 17:32.31 | unum | "Polls are more meaningful now that the voting is about to start, but even so, misses of 5 to 10 percentage points are not uncommon in early primaries and caucuses. " |
| 17:32.38 | unum | --nate silver |
| 17:35.26 | scottymu1e | http://le.utah.gov/~2016/bills/static/HB0119.html |
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| 17:37.54 | unum | huh the one cosponser is a republican |
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| 17:51.36 | programmerq | do we have any accounting/bookkeeping folks in here? I'm trying to adult and track my personal finances better. I've got some questions related to the refi I just did on my home. |
| 17:52.08 | RyanE | Here are the answers: Yes, No, and You Really Shouldn't have bought those collectibles. |
| 18:09.52 | programmerq | there are a lot of other things that I probably shouldn't have bought. :p |
| 18:12.52 | joshh | let me know what you find out |
| 18:12.55 | joshh | i just use a spreadsheet |
| 18:13.02 | joshh | well, my wife does |
| 18:13.19 | joshh | and then she just tells me how much we have |
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| 18:16.12 | unum | joshh and I share accounting strategies |
| 18:16.24 | unum | mostly I just try not to go into a store, then we are ok |
| 18:17.21 | joshh | ya, avoiding stores is the way to go |
| 18:20.09 | SunSparc | programmerq: http://youneedabudget.com |
| 18:22.46 | SunSparc | programmerq: Adult your personal finances, eh? Does your wife know about this? |
| 18:23.35 | programmerq | SunSparc: I'm not looking for more software |
| 18:23.44 | programmerq | but I had specific tax questions specific to my particular refi |
| 18:23.50 | programmerq | but I found someone that was able to answer. :) |
| 18:23.55 | SunSparc | Cool |
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| 18:27.02 | unum | http://www.netfunny.com/rhf/jokes/90q1/taxt.991.html |
| 18:27.37 | unum | oh that one's a NAFTA joke |
| 18:27.45 | unum | I was looking for something similiar |
| 18:28.31 | SunSparc | :) |
| 18:30.08 | unum | of course now I'd expect it to be called the Bernie Sanders tax form |
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| 18:37.52 | keldwud | omg, network manager is driving me crazy in ubuntu |
| 18:38.03 | romanovic | I'm a big fan of YNAB, but haven't updated it in months now. I was unable to reconcile the balance, and I was devoting so many hours per week to it |
| 18:38.27 | joshh | i wish i could get an api key/auth token or something for my chase account |
| 18:38.41 | romanovic | it would probably take me a full weekend of nothing but personal finance work on the computer to get it up to date. very discouraging |
| 18:39.21 | joshh | i despise thinking about money in general, just no fun at all for my brain |
| 18:39.43 | keldwud | get this. network connection properties shows the proper nameservers. nmcli shows the proper nameservers. resolv.conf does *not* show the proper nameservers, so I comment out dnsmasq in NetworkManager.conf and then resolv.conf shows the correct nameservers. I can even get the dns record for the web domain in quesiton, but I can NOT open it in a browser! :( |
| 18:40.02 | keldwud | I get an ERR_NAME_NOT_RESOLVED |
| 18:40.07 | keldwud | what the heck am I doing wrong? |
| 18:41.46 | keldwud | for the life of me, I can't get dns lookups to work on a fresh install |
| 18:42.40 | keldwud | so if I can get the name record using dig, that means it's not being blocked, right? |
| 18:42.48 | keldwud | and that my issue is local to my machine? |
| 18:43.02 | joshh | never use dnsmasq, period |
| 18:43.41 | joshh | just get resolv.conf fixed |
| 18:44.18 | keldwud | well I figured commenting out the dnsmasq entry in the NetworkManager.conf would resolve the issue |
| 18:44.33 | keldwud | and once I did that, resolv.conf now shows the proper nameservers |
| 18:44.33 | joshh | also, don't use networkmanager unless it's a laptop that switches wifi networks frequently |
| 18:44.37 | keldwud | but I still can't connect to the pages |
| 18:44.38 | SunSparc | romanovic: Use the FreshStart feature. |
| 18:44.45 | joshh | and if that's the case, use a rmbp |
| 18:45.08 | keldwud | like, I can access public web pages |
| 18:45.15 | keldwud | just can't access pages on the local domain |
| 18:46.51 | joshh | digging @ the server in resolv.conf works for those local names? |
| 18:47.28 | keldwud | yes |
| 18:48.34 | keldwud | wait |
| 18:48.34 | keldwud | no |
| 18:48.48 | keldwud | dig @localdomain local.site times out |
| 18:51.12 | keldwud | but, when I do a dig local.site, I get the record |
| 18:51.34 | keldwud | if I do a dig @dns.server local.site, it times out |
| 18:51.51 | joshh | by @localdomain you mean @<dns server ip address> right |
| 18:54.18 | keldwud | yes |
| 18:55.01 | keldwud | but a plain dig without specifying the dns server ip address brings me back a proper record |
| 19:11.53 | romanovic | https://drewdevault.com/2015/11/01/Please-stop-using-slack.html |
| 19:20.59 | eightyeight | good post |
| 19:24.41 | keldwud | I'm wondering if I should just uninstall network manager altogether |
| 19:27.03 | joshh | yes |
| 19:28.26 | keldwud | lol |
| 19:28.29 | keldwud | is that the only solution? :) |
| 19:28.37 | keldwud | and will it really resolve my issue? |
| 19:28.51 | keldwud | I'm wondering if it is something deeper than my misunderstanding of how it is supposed to work |
| 19:29.03 | joshh | i don't know but networkmanager has always been garbage |
| 19:29.11 | joshh | then again, it's been years since i've used linux on a non-server |
| 19:29.39 | keldwud | yeah, at $newjob I had a choice between mac or pc, and windows or linux on my work pc |
| 19:29.42 | keldwud | I asked for linux |
| 19:29.54 | joshh | actually that's not true, i had a linux desktop at last job |
| 19:30.06 | keldwud | turns out none of the helpdesk guys are familiar with linux and the sysadmin guys only have one linux guy |
| 19:30.46 | joshh | if this is a pc/desktop then you definitely don't want networkmanager |
| 19:30.47 | keldwud | and I worked with the linux guy to get it set up but he's strangely distant and between the two of us we haven't figured it out even though his system can access local sites |
| 19:31.03 | joshh | it's only useful goal was to help making switching wifi, vpns, etc more smooth |
| 19:31.03 | keldwud | I'll probably try looking at his network config files |
| 19:31.25 | keldwud | and the hybrid dnsmasq resolvconf really confuses me as well |
| 19:31.55 | keldwud | bbl lunch |
| 19:40.07 | Tod-Work | really can't see "closed source" as anything but zealotry anymore |
| 19:40.14 | Tod-Work | well |
| 19:40.20 | Tod-Work | when talked about in blogs, anyway |
| 19:40.29 | Tod-Work | the /concept/ has a lot of meaning to me, obviously |
| 19:41.14 | Tod-Work | but it's usually just used as a principle, an ideology, rather than a compelling example of that concept |
| 19:41.44 | Tod-Work | the rest of those points I'm totally on board with, especially since they don't have a linux client that makes anything easier for me =cP |
| 19:47.13 | jfindlay | networkmanager was cool when I used it, but I don't think it really helped me with VPN stuff. If anything it made it more confusing |
| 19:47.36 | jfindlay | I've been using wpa_gui and it works very well |
| 19:47.50 | jfindlay | it also doesn't obfuscate its configs and saved network info |
| 19:48.27 | jfindlay | networkmanager just seems like a big, obtuse, frustrating blob in comparison |
| 20:00.33 | keldwud | okay, I'm starting to suspect something else is going on |
| 20:00.50 | keldwud | I just started a fresh windows 10 install on the network and *it* can't access local sites either. |
| 20:01.08 | keldwud | maybe the sysops weren't being completely straight with me about how to access local sites. |
| 20:01.17 | keldwud | their line was "it works for me!" |
| 20:02.44 | keldwud | although, vpn should get me access, I would think |
| 20:06.07 | joshh | sound like newjob is going well |
| 20:27.12 | keldwud | well, I'm loving it, I just feel really dumb not being able to open local sites on my linux box |
| 20:27.24 | keldwud | I guess there's just me and one other person who use linux on the network |
| 20:27.55 | keldwud | I checked with a mac machine and it works out of box |
| 20:28.06 | keldwud | and can dig the ip address for the nameserver |
| 20:28.13 | keldwud | so it's gotta be network manager |
| 20:39.28 | Tod-Work | doesn't like network manager |
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| 22:10.13 | frostyfrog | used netctl instead, and openvpn for the vpn traffic. Then I got lazy and settled for NM. |
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| 22:55.30 | eightyeight | huh. prelims show sanders will take iowa. that would be very interesting. |
| 22:59.17 | eightyeight | nvm. i see that was an online voting prediction, and nothing based on post-voting polls |
| 23:11.15 | jfindlay | noway, the intartubez are always right |
| 23:11.18 | jfindlay | because science |
| 23:11.37 | jfindlay | ~napoleon |
| 23:11.37 | infobot | Girls only like guys who have great skills: Nun-chuck skills, bow hunting skills, computer hacking skills. |
| 23:50.18 | unum | eightyeight: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-is-the-hardest-state-to-poll/ |
| 23:50.34 | jfindlay | ~napoleon iowa |
| 23:50.34 | infobot | ACTION eats all of iowa's steak |
| 23:50.38 | jfindlay | lol |
| 23:51.42 | unum | that's a lot of steak |